It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average could be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
